Valle defended the forecasts as “prudent and credible,” within the range projected by leading analysts. The minister highlighted the role of investment, businesses and exports in the region’s economic performance. “We face the future with confidence, but also with responsibility and realism,” she said, while warning that the scenario “is by no means free of risks.”
UNEMPLOYMENT WILL FALL, BUT WORKERS WILL BE NEEDED
The regional government expects the unemployment rate to fall to 7.4% by the end of 2027, from 9.2% recorded in the third quarter of this year. If this estimate is met, Aragon would be more than two points below the forecast for Spain as a whole, which is around 9.5%, according to figures presented by Valle.
The availability of workers will be one of the keys to turning investments into reality. The minister said the calculations take the current workforce into account, although she acknowledged that attracting professionals will be necessary. “Aragon will have to work to bring in all the skilled labour” it needs, she said. Construction particularly reflects this challenge: activity remains strong and the unemployment rate stands at just 2.6%.
EXPORTS AND CONSUMPTION DRIVE THE ECONOMY
Aragon’s industry is maintaining its activity despite international difficulties and energy costs. Exports rose by 3.9% during the first eight months of the year, and the region sold more abroad than it imported. The automotive, food, capital goods and logistics sectors continue to support industrial activity. In the agricultural sector, farm income grew by 10.9% in 2025.
Services are also advancing thanks to household consumption, with increases of 2.6% in both turnover and retail sales. Valle admitted that these figures are “somewhat surprising for analysts” and that the government is still examining their causes, although she pointed to the Volveremos programme as a possible influence. Regarding prices, she explained that headline and core inflation stood at approximately half a percentage point below the Spanish average in the third quarter.
DATA CENTRES AMONG THE MAIN RISKS
The draft royal decree on data centres is one of the uncertainties that could affect investment. Valle explained that the central scenario used by the Aragonese government assumes that the regulation will not be approved, since it has not yet been passed. Its possible consequences have been taken into account in the adverse scenario. The minister warned that “a country’s image is damaged if the rules of the game are changed halfway through the match.”
Under that negative scenario, Aragon’s growth would fall to 0.6% in 2027. In addition to regulatory risks, the regional government is considering geopolitical tensions, high energy costs, lower consumption and more demanding financing conditions. By contrast, faster investment implementation, lower interest rates or an international improvement would allow growth to exceed the projected 2%. Valle stressed that the region starts from a “position of relative strength,” although it will have to face these uncertainties.
